How to Learn Decision Theory
A structured path through Decision Theory — from first principles to confident mastery. Check off each milestone as you go.
Decision Theory Learning Roadmap
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Foundations: Logic, Probability, and Preference
1-2 weeksBuild prerequisite knowledge in basic probability theory, propositional logic, and the concept of preference orderings. Understand what it means for preferences to be complete and transitive.
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Expected Value and Expected Utility Theory
2-3 weeksLearn to calculate expected values and understand the Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem. Study the axioms of rational preference and how they lead to expected utility maximization.
Decision Matrices, Trees, and Dominance
2-3 weeksMaster practical tools for structuring decision problems: payoff matrices, decision trees, and the concept of dominance. Practice backward induction and sensitivity analysis.
Decision Under Uncertainty
1-2 weeksStudy decision rules for when probabilities are unknown: maximin, maximax, minimax regret, and the Hurwicz criterion. Explore Knightian uncertainty and its implications.
Bayesian Decision Theory and Value of Information
2-3 weeksLearn Bayesian probability updating, prior and posterior distributions, and how to compute the value of perfect and imperfect information in decision problems.
Paradoxes and Challenges to Expected Utility
1-2 weeksStudy the Allais Paradox, Ellsberg Paradox, St. Petersburg Paradox, and Newcomb's Problem. Understand what these reveal about the limits of standard decision theory.
Descriptive Theories and Behavioral Approaches
2-3 weeksExplore Prospect Theory, satisficing, bounded rationality, and heuristics. Compare normative prescriptions with how people actually decide under risk and uncertainty.
Advanced Topics and Applications
3-4 weeksDive into multi-criteria decision analysis, sequential decision problems, causal vs. evidential decision theory, and applications in AI, medicine, policy, and philosophy.
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Choose a different way to engage with this topic — no grading, just richer thinking.
Explore your way — choose one: